5K. I think the CR is 14:40 or so. Not sure.

Is the Shore Conference Championships 3m or 5K? What's the course record?

cerutty fan, on , said:

This should tie you a pretty good indication of where they are since all these marks were run on the same course on the same day. These are the 14 fastest guys or them at the Shore Conference meet:

14:42.34 McClemens, Mike Shore Conf. Championships 2013-10-24
14:50.47 Ferro, Blaise Shore Conf. Championships 2013-10-24
15:09.19 Bogan, Fran Shore Conf. Championships 2013-10-24
15:12.46 Rooney, Tom Shore Conf. Championships 2013-10-24
15:24.48 Kruppa, Josh Shore Conf. Championships 2013-10-24
15:32.30 Durney, Aidan Shore Conf. Championships 2013-10-24
15:35.98 Paugh, Greg Shore Conf Frosh / JV Championships 2013-10-24
15:38.42 Trigani, Nick Shore Conf. Championships 2013-10-24
15:41.44 Cassidy, Mike Shore Conf Frosh / JV Championships 2013-10-24
15:46.81 Dooling, Jon Shore Conf Frosh / JV Championships 2013-10-24
15:51.75 Morris, John Shore Conf Frosh / JV Championships 2013-10-24
15:53.08 Dengler, Brian Shore Conf Frosh / JV Championships 2013-10-24
15:58.22 Dengler, Thomas Shore Conf Frosh / JV Championships 2013-10-24
16:01.41 McLaughlin, Christian Shore Conf Frosh / JV Championships 2013-10-24

cerutty fan, on , said:

CBA rested its top 5.

Top 5 that sat out are:

McClemens
Ferro
Rooney
Bogan
Kruppa

Bill Meylan, on , said:

Wait, so now CBA ran their JV team at NJCTC? Cassidy, Trigani and Dengler are outside the top 7 altogether? They were (according to Milesplit) their 4th, 6th, and 7th fastest returning 3200 guys from last track season. Who are their actual top 7? If a 9:22 3200 runner (Cassidy) can't make the team's top 7 maybe it's time they relocate the school to Iten and pick on kids who can put up an honest fight.

I agree with watchout that Gig Harbor is currently the top-rated team in the nation, although several others are close (including CBA, FM, American Fork and others) ... It will be interesting to see how Gig Harbor performs at the NXN-Northwest Regional (I suspect they will run very well) ... Also interested to see how well the 3rd and 4th-place teams run because they will likely be serious candidates for at-large selection assuming they run up to form.

I quickly estimated the New Jersey Catholic TC Conference Champ (NJCTC) this past weekend where the CBA JV team ran in place of the regular varsity runners and they won handily ... The top five CBA guys rated between 175 to 170 ... Christian Brothers Academy-New Jersey has the deepest cross country team at a high level that I have ever seen ... BUT only seven guys can run a championship race and that's my only consideration when comparing teams. CBA's depth could be a deciding factor at NXN because their 6th and 7th guys seem capable of off-setting off-races by other runners.

CBA's upcoming races at Holmdel Park and Bowdoin Park will give insight to their current form ... And the race at Bowdoin Park (NXN Northeast), which takes place in conjunction with the NXN New York race, will allow comparison with the NY teams.

I know others don't agree, but if there was a "hypothetical" betting race including the top boys teams from NXN (NTN) 2004 to 2012, I would still bet York 2004 because their top guy was capable of winning, others at a very high level and depth that proved itself 7-deep when it counted .... Many very good teams in 2013 ... But they need to prove themselves at Portland Meadows before too many accolades are given.

watchout, on , said:

Gig Harbor's speed ratings from the state meet:

193
192
190
185
175
172
165

Those indicate a significant drop off after their 4th as you mentioned.

CBA's speed ratings from the Shore Conference meet:

190
187
181
180
176
173
171

Those support what you are saying about the top 4s BUT the last four indicate that Gig Harbor's last 4 are close to CBA's. Still, the Shore Conference meet was 3 weeks ago so could CBA have improved a bunch? Maybe we will see this Saturday at the State Group meet BUT remember that last year CBA did not run al their first seven in the Groups and MOC (partially due to postponement of one of the meets as a result of Sandy).

I'

Bsarno1, on , said:

Absolutely right on all counts. Gig Harbor is essentially 2 meets ahead of CBA (NJ Groups and MOC, whereas Gig Harbor finished up the state series this last weekend), and with the most important meets coming up for CBA, I expect them to start running their best performances of the season. But beyond that, the bigger question is what will happen when the teams go head to head... Gig Harbor looks to have the better top-5, but the drop off from #4-6/7 is pretty significant whereas CBA's #6/7 are closer to their main pack - that means Gig Harbor would be hurt more by an "off" race by one of their top four, which is more likely to happen if it's sloppy conditions in Portland (though who knows if that will be the case, or if any of their top 5 won't have good days that day). All I can say is that, at the moment, Gig Harbor's accomplishments to date (this year) put them #1 in the nation in my analysis. But there is still a month of racing left, including the grande finale which is what ultimately matters.

Bsarno1, on , said:

Ironic, being a horse track and all.

Dan

Guess I know a lot more about Gig Harbor than I did yesterday.
What I find notable is the ratings which confirm a suspicion I harbor based somewhat on CBA having important local races left in which maybe their best runners May or may not run. Three GH runners rate above CBA's best. The question remains to be answered is whether CBA will have runners exceed their ratings at NXN. Will GH have three runners finish before the first CBA runner? If so, GH is likely to score better than CBA even if their no. 5 is not strong. However if CBA can break up that top three, then it will be a horse race and the no. 5s will be crucial. Of course, if Portland is a mess again, all bets are off.

Ok, quick summaries for your questions that Michak didn't answer:

Why is Gig Harbor #1? To put it bluntly, they've shown to be better than everyone this year. How is that determined? By looking at how each individual would score against the average NXN field over the past seven years. Ratings are derived from a variety of factors, but at this point of the season the most important factors are history: How fast did they run, and how fast has the course been compared to the regional and national courses (and also taking a look at how runners have done at other courses this year, if there were any weather conditions that are making the course slower than the historical average, etc.). For a comparison with a team you're probably more familiar with, how do Gig Harbor and Christian Brothers stack up?

Here is a comparison of the athletes on the two teams. At the far left is their projected ranking on their team; next column is championship-weighted ratings (not applicable for CBA yet, since they haven't run their state meet); third column is seasonal rating. I also included their track times, for a more recognizable point of comparison.

1 187.8 187.8 Mike McClemens 12 Christian Brothers Academy NJ 9:13.50 / 4:14.29
2 186.5 186.5 Blaise Ferro 10 Christian Brothers Academy NJ 9:13.26 / 4:23.70
3 184.4 184.4 Tom Rooney 12 Christian Brothers Academy NJ 9:09.70 / 4:17.25
4 182.0 182.0 Francis Bogan 12 Christian Brothers Academy NJ 9:19.29 / 4:44.27
5 179.0 179.0 Nick Trigani 10 Christian Brothers Academy NJ 9:30.87 / 4:24.42
6 178.3 178.3 Mike Cassidy 12 Christian Brothers Academy NJ 9:22.03 / 4:20.12
7 175.2 175.2 Josh Kruppa 11 Christian Brothers Academy NJ 9:26.13 / 4:33.26

1 192.9 194.1 Wolfgang Beck 12 Gig Harbor WA 9:12.07 / 4:15.94 (though note that he ran 9:14.60 / 4:13.08 as a soph 2 years ago, and 9:13.06y over hay bales a month ago)
2 192.8 192.8 Logan Carroll 12 Gig Harbor WA (DNC) / 4:14.00y
3 190.2 190.4 Tristan Peloquin 11 Gig Harbor WA 9:09.27 / 4:17.92y
4 185.2 185.4 Mahmoud Moussa 12 Gig Harbor WA (did not run track at Arcadia)
5 175.6 176.4 Michael Hammer 11 Gig Harbor WA 9:51.46 / 4:44.83
6 171.9 172.4 Jordan Oldenburg 12 Gig Harbor WA (DNC) / 4:22.34
7 164.1 164.1 Jack Shields 9 Gig Harbor WA

And for an additional point of comparison, here is how Gig Harbor fared at Bob Firman, a course that runs very similarly to Holmdel Park. Though note that this meet was in mid September... Gig Harbor has gotten a bit better since then.

2. 12 Wolfgang Beck 15:15.28 Gig Harbor
10. 12 Logan Carroll 15:38.14 Gig Harbor
12. 11 Tristan Peloquin 15:44.90 Gig Harbor
21. 12 Mahmoud Moussa 16:06.71 Gig Harbor
35. 11 Michael Hammer 16:23.25 Gig Harbor
128. 12 Charles Shields 17:38.17 Gig Harbor
139. 9 Jack Shields 17:47.72 Gig Harbor

... their team time at that race was only slower than to 2008 NXN#1 North Central WA and 2012 NXN#3 North Central WA (back when they were 100% healthy, unlike late season), which means they were faster than multiple NXN trophy teams including 2012 NXN#1 Arcadia CA, 2009 NXN#2 Joel Ferris WA, 2011 NXN#3 Davis UT, 2011 NXN#4 Arcadia CA, 2005 NTN#5 Mountain View UT, 2009 NXN#6 North Central WA, 2010 NXN#6 North Central WA, 2006 NTN#9 Trabuco Hills CA, 2007 NXN#7 North Central WA, 2012 NXN#7 Kamiakin WA, and a host of other NXN qualifiers from the Northwest, Southwest and California. And then their state meet performance was the best that Washington has ever seen, which includes MANY US#1/2/3/4/5 teams over the past quarter century (note: this course is about 25 seconds faster than Holmdel):

1. 12 Logan Carroll 15:06.37 Gig Harbor
2. 12 Wolfgang Beck 15:09.28 Gig Harbor
3. 11 Tristan Peloquin 15:14.24 Gig Harbor
9. 12 Mahmoud Moussa 15:29.62 Gig Harbor
29. 11 Michael Hammer 15:59.38 Gig Harbor
39. 12 Jordan Oldenburg 16:09.10 Gig Harbor
73. 9 Jack Shields 16:30.76 Gig Harbor


Western US teams dominating the rankings: It will even out a little bit this week, as the Illinois and Indiana state meets had some pretty good performances, but what Michak said is right. Take a look at the regions east of the Rockies aside from the Midwest... the South hasn't proven to be very elite at the top, as has been the case sans Southlake Carroll for a few years now; Southeast has some good teams, and are ranked accordingly, so that isn't unusual for them. New York has more boys teams ranked than in the past, and that's credit to how deep the state is at the top this year. So the only region that really doesn't have many teams compared to normal is the Northeast, which has CBA and West Chester Henderson but not many other teams (the pair of Rhode Island teams and Connecticut teams have bounced in and out of the rankings, but that's it) ... then again, it is pretty much normal as well to only have 4-6 Northeast boys teams in the US Top 40. California, the Southwest, and the Northwest are three of the four deepest boys regions in the nation (Midwest being the other). It shouldn't be a surprise that there are a lot of teams from those regions in the rankings - there always have been, because the teams are just that good (look at track results, FLN and NXN finishes of both athletes and teams over the past decade, a significant portion of the top and middle of the races are from those regions, and those regions also tend to be extremely competitive for those spots they earn - as are the Southeast and Northeast, though those teams that make it through aren't always scoring as low as their Western counterparts).

A couple of other things to note about Gig Harbor.

One of the historical footnotes of the town - though not necessarily the school - is that Doris Brown Heritage grew up here. She was one of the true pioneers of women's distance running and she went to the neighboring school in the same district, Peninsula High. She was an amazing talent who emerged in the late 50s and was something of a precursor to Mary Decker. Of course it's both interesting and sad to note that as a senior in high school she was forbidden from running on the school track because of her gender.

But the current thing that I think is unique about Gig Harbor is that coach Mark Wieczorek is, himself, a national-class 800-meter runner. He was a finalist in the U.S. Outdoor championships in both 2011 and 2012 (Olympic Trials). Not only that, but Wieczorek is dating Brie Felnagle, who is a well-known and accomplished runner, and he's roommates with Matt Scherer, a former Oregon Duck and one of the top pace-setters in the world. Scherer is also helping Mark as an assistant coach with the Gig team (and, full disclosure here, he's a long-time RunnerSpace employee). They are also part of a Brooks-funded training group that includes folks like Riley Masters, Katie Mackey, Angela Bizzarri, etc. So the runners in Gig Harbor program get to see what elite level training and racing is all about through their coach.

Bsarno1, on , said:

I've seen you post this in two threads so I will answer it in the proper spot, (I'll let watchout answer why he has them at number one and the question about the West being so good but I think its because we are faster on this side of the mississippi)
Gig Harbor has a 3 year count of 1433.43 which means it has around 1900 students and had 40 boys and 35 girls out for XC this year.
The first legal practice was on August 26th, but they have a very strong summer training program run by captains and parents
And they competed at 3 major invites this year UW Sundodger, Nike Pre Nationals (in Oregon) and Bob Firman Invite (in Idaho at the NXNNW course) at Sundodger they beat instate powers Eisenhower, Kamiakin amoung others while running in a pack, then at Bob Firman they ran there only all out effort of the regular season they scored 63 points to North Centrals 149 and beat several top Washington and Utah Teams and at Nike Pre Nationals they again ran in a pack this time all of there top 5 finished in 1 second to take place 13 to 17 and won the meet easily. Now at the state meet they ran a historic race in which they finished 1-2-3-9-29 and ran the fastest team time ever at Sun Willows on a course that has had all time great Mead, Ferris and North Central squads compete on.

Would like see more about the Gig Harbor team.
Why are they no. 1.
How big is the school, XC turnout etc.
when does season open....first legal practice varies from state to state.
Do they compete out of state....
Lately, ratings seem to be dominated by West Coast, particularly massive Calif. and Wash., and mountain states Colorado and Utah. Is there a reference point..such as NXN performance.
Know Washington runners and Saarel have done well at Arcadia and spring....but Washington is soooo far away and deserves a shoutout for earning high

There is more to how fast a course runs than just the distance.

But yes, Burbank is a solid team.

Utah State Meet - Oct 23, 2013

Connor Mcmillan 12 American Fork 15:04.1
Zachary Jacklin 11 American Fork 15:27.8
Tyler Bell 12 American Fork 15:46.6
Casey Clinger 9 American Fork 15:52.7
Caleb Thompson 12 American Fork 16:04.4
Spencer Herzog 12 American Fork 16:07.7

Pacific League Meet - Nov 7, 2013

Choe, Elliot 12 Burbank 14:44.09 6
Mkrtchyan, Arsen 12 Burbank 14:49.12 7
Ellman, Gabriel 12 Burbank 15:08.38 11
Moskowitz, Ethan 12 Burbank 15:09.91 12
Vizcaino, Enrique 11 Burbank 15:18.97 16
Doyle, Brennan 11 Burbank 15:22.93 18

w/ 20 second altitude adjustment
Am Fork Burbank
1444 1 1444 2
1507 4 1449 3
1526 9 1508 5
1532 10 1509 6
1544 11 1518 7
1547 12 1522 8

35 23

w/ 30 second altitude adjustment
Am Fork Burbank
1434 1 1444 2
1457 4 1449 3
1516 7 1508 5
1522 9 1509 6
1534 11 1518 8
1537 12 1522 10

32 24

w/ 30 second altitude adjustment
Am Fork Burbank
1424 1 1444 2
1447 3 1449 4
1506 5 1508 6
1512 8 1509 7
1524 11 1518 9
1527 12 1522 10


28 28

Agreed with all you said. As previously stated, I'm sure York will bounce back (they almost always do). Also, I'm sure Glenbard West will continue to rise in the rankings as they continue to get better (Perez's return having much to do with that, obviously). They were ranked in the top 10 in the pre-season for a reason!

cerutty fan, on , said:

Mea culpa. I see now in your orig message you already did say "returning runners." I just missed it, my apologies.

Related to my earlier post re rankings: York boys seemed to run their Sectional race trying to live down to (or below) Watchout's rankings. I haven't heard yet if some of their guys were sick, but I can't complain about their rating now. We'll see after State. Some other IL teams coming together well, should be an interesting state meet.

Glenbard West girls, however, ran fantastic, and if they duplicate next week at State will be deserving of higher ranking. (I didn't see the other great IL girls teams in person, but based on results looked like Naperville North ran great, possibly Palatine, too. New Trier girls were a bit off (and missing a top 5 runner), but I expect they'll bounce back next week.

West Plains boys obviously has the best shot - they're sitting at MW#6 and just off the national rankings, after being MW#4 and US#40 in the last updates.

Ste Genevieve girls could sneak into the national rankings with a strong performance from their pack runners, though I think MW Top-5 might be out of reach when the Michigan teams are included.

For Ohio, it's more of a longshot beyond the already ranked St. Xavier boys, but maybe Mason... their boys are just off the MW Top-10 for now.

For Michigan, Hudsonville girls barely missed out on the national rankings this week, and Traverse City Central wasn't far off either. Groose Pointe South has a shot as well. On the boys side, Waterford Mott boys could sneak into either the national or regional rankings as they aren't too far behind West Plains MO. I have Milford Highland and Northville a bit further back.

What Missouri teams can you see potentially making a jump into the rankings, along with other Midwest teams, it seems as though Illinois and Indiana continue to be the strongest of the Midwest region.

ILDistanceFan, on , said:

I'm certainly not trying to disparage runners from anywhere, just saying that according to overall population the two states seem about right in line. Was just giving you a hard time about the Century League.

The numbers I had down were for returning runners, meaning no seniors from last year.

cerutty fan, on , said:

Yeah, I'd say what you read is not at all accurate about track times. I think you looked at INDOOR season only.

2013 Illinois state meet ONLY (not all season, just the one meet) had

Sub 9:20: 17 (13 in 3A, 3 in 2A, 1 in 1A)

1600, sub 4:17: 8 (took 4:18:02 to qualify for final in 3A - so 12 at 4:18 or faster)

Again, that's from ONE MEET.

Actually, when I look at ILMileSplit.com (and I'm not vouching for their listing), for OUTDOOR track (only) I see

1600M
Sub 4:22 - IL 45
Sub 4:20 - - IL 31
Sub 4:17 - - IL 16

3200M
Sub 9:27 - - IL 48**
Sub 9:20 - CA 57 - IL 27

To be fair, I also see more CA runners than you listed meeting your criteria (see sub 9:20 3200). So, CA has about twice as many fast 3200 runners. (But if we want to compare REGIONS, as in NXN regions, we'd have to add to IL: Mich, Ind, Oh, & Missou). No one is saying (well, I'm not saying) CA is bad at XC or track, but no need to disparage runners from Illinois or elsewhere.

watchout, on , said:

I know, and I know I'm being a bit of a homer here - but someone's gotta do it!

We'll be looking to see how the rankings change after Sectionals and State; and even more eager to see results from interstate competition at NXN regionals. Too bad there is such limited inter-regional competitions, and that affects the selection for the one chance it can happen (NXN).

Mike Newman, on , said:

Maybe the accuracy of Milesplit is questionable, I'm really not sure, but here is what they report in terms of number of returnees from last track season.

1600M
Sub 4:22 - CA 48 - IL 21
Sub 4:20 - CA 36 - IL 12
Sub 4:17 - CA 21 - IL 2

3200M
Sub 9:27 - CA 47 - IL 17
Sub 9:20 - CA 21 - IL 7

California's population is about 3x that of Illinois. It looks like they have about 3x the depth as well.

As for hype, I think the top 7 runners from the Century League could beat the top 7 runners from the entire state of Illinois.

ILDistanceFan, on , said:

I agree, but as their only races in the last 3 weeks were WSS and their Regional race, and as I have said numerous times I look at the best performance for each individual in the last 3 weeks, last 4 weeks, and so on ... you can understand how not having a strong result in the last 3 weeks inevitably leads to a drop in the rankings. And as I also said, I expect them to rise again in the rankings after their Sectional and State meets.